China’s Econ, 101
February 21st, 2012There’s lots of talk here on CNN about China’s economy that I’m not hearing expressed as much in the US.Thought you all might find it interesting…
Labor costs are going up - there was an interview featured on TV with an exporter who said he used to have workers ask him if he could give a job to a cousin, brother, etc. But now, with half his employees gone to better - paying jobs, he’s asking his workers if they have a brother or cousin that could come to work for him.
I assume this is due the increase in demand for products from international companies, as we are hearing from a new friend we made here, that Chinese people do not like “Made in China”, they think it’s cheap. They buy foreign, name brands, and like to pay for quality.
At the same time, China is the world’s leading importer of wood (paper prices are basically a reaction to China’s demand for wood), they are importing soy products, and after switching to a coal-based economy, there will soon be more roads than rice patties… Which means they may not have the means to feed their own population; and we are meeting more and more westerners over here to work, to export their own services instead of importing a product…
Also, inflation is a problem, as there is so much cash - perhaps the government is doing a fine job of spending plenty of RMB, but prices of everyday goods are still going up.
Couple this with an exchange rate that, with international pressure, is more and more realistic (in 2005, when I first studied here, it was 8 RMB to 1 USD, and has gradually dropped to 7:1, 6.8:1, 6.5:1, and this trip is 6.18:1)… I think my last trip the correct exchange rate, if china allowed it’s currency to float was predicted to be closer to 3:1.
Perhaps a textbook economic situation? So interesting.
I have my own predictions, from a business person myself who’s experienced this sort of thing from a micro standpoint I the US - our costs have gone up, competition has increased, and our prices have to go down…
Cost increases to these Chinese businesses, and they’ll decrease price to stay competitive, getting squeezed… And, as cost of living has increased, this new middle class, that probably hasn’t saved properly, will be in a bind. And now, with a fixation on foreign made products and a dependency on foreign idea generation… Perhaps they are not in the position they we paint them in the U.S.
Anybody have any comments? Post them on out FB page, we had to turn off the blog comment section.








